Host: The results of the German federal election have been announced. The Union has won, and Scholz has conceded defeat. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has achieved a remarkable result with 20.8% of the vote. How do you assess this outcome?
Jiang Feng: Before discussing the election results, I’d like to talk about the background of this election. I believe this election was historic, highly noteworthy, and even marked by unprecedented drama, especially with strong interference from the United States—including Vice President Vance's direct involvement in German election activities and his speech at the Munich Security Conference—which further intensified the drama of the election. I personally witnessed this on site in Munich.
However, the results themselves are relatively clear and simple. This is mainly due to the clearly defined balance of power among the major parties, which makes the formation of the new federal government less complicated—perhaps even easier. It also means that the incoming Chancellor Merz will quickly form a new government to begin governance. On the other hand, the AfD has now become a major party. In the words of Weidel, they have “built a new people’s party.” Even in Bavaria, the stronghold of the CSU, the AfD received nearly 20% of the vote—an unprecedented achievement. In all the eastern federal states, the AfD has become the largest party.
Whether the so-called firewall set up by traditional parties like the CDU, CSU, SPD, and Greens against the AfD can remain effective in the long run is still uncertain. Germany must respond to this issue more quickly and forcefully.
Host: With the results now announced, what do you think the formation of the new government will look like?
Jiang Feng: As I just mentioned, the final outcome of the German election clearly reflects the balance of power among the parties. It’s expected that the Union will form a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. Many experts view this as unsurprising. A few days ago in Germany, I sensed that most people I spoke with hoped to see a grand coalition. Historically, especially during difficult times, Germany has often formed such governments, which have helped the country weather challenging periods.
Right now, Germany is facing rare and unprecedented internal and external political challenges—it is, so to speak, at a “historical turning point.” A stable government is urgently needed, and now is the best time to form one. This election has created the opportunity for that.
Host: How do you think this election result will affect future China–Germany relations?
Jiang Feng: I believe China would welcome a grand coalition government. While China consistently adheres to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other States, it certainly hopes to see a stable and open Germany. This will positively impact China–Germany relations.
As the new chancellor-designate, Merz will focus on economic development and enhancing Germany’s position in Europe and globally. China, as a global economic and political power, is certainly an ideal partner for Germany’s new government. I am optimistic that political leaders from both China and Germany will work together to further develop the relationship by identifying mutual interests and advancing global governance.
Close cooperation between China and Germany will become an important stabilizing factor in an increasingly complex international order. Of course, what I mentioned is long-term. In the short term, China–Germany relations may experience fluctuations, and many variables could emerge during this period—we need to remain calm. I believe the new German government will prioritize three areas in its foreign relations: ties with the United States, European policy, and relations with Russia. Among them, ending the Russia–Ukraine conflict will continue to play a key role.
Host: A few days ago, Merz stated that his priority is to strengthen Europe and gradually reduce dependence on the United States. Last week you attended the Munich Security Conference as an observer. In the current complex international landscape, do you think mutual expectations between China and Europe are changing?
Jiang Feng: There has long been a consensus in German politics that Germany can only play a true global role through Europe. Naturally, Merz wants to focus on European policy during his administration and to strengthen Germany’s leadership within Europe. I also noted that he hopes to reduce Europe’s dependence on the United States and pursue greater strategic autonomy. However, this will be a very challenging task for him and the new government.
Since World War II, Europe has been strategically dependent on the U.S., especially in defense and security. At present, I don’t see Europe—particularly Germany—having the capacity and resources to achieve the strategic autonomy that Merz envisions. This may take a long time. Moreover, whether the U.S. is willing to allow it is a crucial and decisive question. I’m not optimistic in this regard.
As for the potential changes in China–Europe relations, I’d like to share two observations based on what I witnessed at the Munich Security Conference.
First, China received more attention than ever. There were seven events focused mainly on China, including discussions on the South China Sea and the Arctic. Many other discussions also touched on China–U.S. trade competition, the so-called global bipolar rivalry. I think Europe’s strategic attention toward China and its efforts to understand China are very positive. China also hopes to enhance its understanding of Europe.
Second, there is an asymmetry in mutual understanding. I observed that China sent scholars from various fields to Munich, aiming to engage in discussions on international security from multiple perspectives and to understand how the world perceives China. I see this as a signal that China is open-minded and comprehensive in terms of international perception and seeks to promote exchanges and cooperation through understanding.
On the other hand, I sensed that Europe’s current perception of China is largely driven by security and political considerations, and even influenced by ideological biases. Their understanding of China could be broader and more open. It remains unclear whether Europe seeks to define its ambiguous relationship with China as a “systemic rival” or “institutional competitor,” but I did sense that inclination. Therefore, I believe there is still a gap in mutual strategic understanding between China and Europe.
This is why it’s important for both sides to work together to improve strategic perception. That is a key prerequisite for strengthening communication and cooperation, especially in today’s rapidly and profoundly changing world.
Interviewee: Jiang Feng, Researcher at Shanghai International Studies University and Chairman of the Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies.
Source: CCTV PLUS, February 28, 2025.
Translated and reviewed by Zhang Yangyang with AI translator
