Professor Yang Cheng, Executive Director of the Shanghai Global Governance and Area Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University, gave an interview to Phoenix TV, commenting on issues including the renewed Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul.
Yang Cheng believes that Ukraine has been seeking the possibility of meeting with Russian leaders to promote a resolution of the fundamental differences between the two countries. Whether a Russia-Ukraine summit can be reached soon, and whether Ukraine will repeal the 2022 decree signed by Zelensky forbidding negotiations with Putin, depends on how the nature of such a meeting is defined. He mentioned that past talks often involved third-party participation, similar to the U.S.-North Korea negotiations in which China was involved, implying that direct Russia-Ukraine dialogue is not necessarily a strictly bilateral meeting.
The possibility of a future meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders depends not only on Kyiv’s willingness but more significantly on the relationship between Moscow and Washington. The U.S. President Trump’s public refusal to participate in these talks has made their realization more difficult. Without the presence of Russian and American leaders, it will be hard to effectively implement a solution to the Ukraine crisis. Therefore, resolving the issue largely depends on changes in the great power relationship environment.
If the leaders of the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia can all attend, the likelihood of reaching some consensus would be relatively higher. However, while reaching consensus may be comparatively easier, actual compromises are very difficult. The differences between Russia and Ukraine on key issues like territorial sovereignty are very deep, especially regarding the sovereignty over Crimea and eastern regions, where Ukraine is almost impossible to fully relinquish its claims. At the same time, Russia has repeatedly stressed that its sovereignty over these territories is non-negotiable.
Given this background, the current conditions do not exist to facilitate a meeting between the two sides unless Ukraine makes significant concessions under U.S. pressure. However, Yang states that this possibility is relatively small.
Yang Cheng pointed out that following the explicit decision by the presidents of the United States and Russia not to attend the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, Ukrainian President Zelensky also quietly departed from Turkey. The absence of these key leaders has drawn attention to its potential implications, particularly regarding the outcome of the talks. The collective absence of the three leaders may have a negative impact on the negotiations, especially since the talks now resemble more of a technical-level meeting, lacking the involvement of top-level leadership, which may make progress even more difficult.
The Ukraine issue is, by nature, a complex crisis. The two sides hold sharply divergent positions on core issues such as territorial sovereignty, resulting in slow progress in negotiations. Ukraine’s stance on joining NATO also remains a difficult and unresolved matter. Therefore, whether the talks will break down can be analyzed from different angles.
For Ukraine, attending the talks was a decision made out of necessity—especially as the U.S. position on the Ukraine crisis has shifted. Ukraine needed to take visible steps to avoid being accused of non-cooperation. From the Russian perspective, Yang mentioned the view of a Russian scholar who believes that the large size of Russia’s delegation could indicate two possible scenarios.
The first possibility is that President Putin wishes to maintain his trust-based relationship with Trump while avoiding breaking previous commitments. As a result, he may have requested the U.S. side not to attend the Istanbul talks, a request that Trump may have accepted in exchange for Putin’s promise that Russia’s delegation would focus on studying the technical details of a ceasefire and the exchange of cruise missiles. Although such commitments do not guarantee rapid consensus, they could be seen as a form of compromise between the two powers.
The second possibility is that Russia might raise some of its earlier demands again—particularly those made during the negotiations in March and April of 2022. These demands are difficult for Ukraine to accept, which further complicates the current negotiation landscape. According to the Russian scholar, both scenarios are plausible, but the second is less appealing to the Kremlin.
Ultimately, the three leaders’ decision to skip the negotiations reflects the high level of difficulty facing the talks. Achieving quick results in one round of negotiations is nearly impossible, so a more practical approach may be to begin with technical discussions. This is especially favorable for Russia, as advancing talks on a technical level may better serve its interests.
Interviewee | Yang Cheng, Professor and Executive Director of the Shanghai Global Governance and Regional Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University
Source |Phoenix TV, May 17, 2025
Translated and Reviewed by Zhang Yangyang with AI translator
