Editor’s Note
Recently, Huang Jing, Distinguished Professor at Shanghai International Studies University and Director of the Institute for American and Pacific Studies at Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies, participated in a China-US-Europe scholars’ dialogue hosted by Guancha.cn. He shared his insights on the impact of a potential second Trump presidency on relations between China, the US, Russia, and Europe. Key points from his remarks are summarized below for readers’ consideration.
1. Trump’s Moves Ring Alarm Bells for Europe, “Wake Up, Europeans!”
Huang Jing: People say that what Trump has done serves as a wake-up call to Europe: “Europeans, wake up!” But unfortunately, this wake-up call came too dramatically. So, what will Europeans do? We still remember Blinken once saying, “You’re either at the table or on the menu.” The Trump administration has placed not only Ukraine but also Europe “on the menu.” Given the negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, to what extent do you think Europe can hold to its original stance? We see European leaders coming together—first Macron convened a meeting, followed by summits in London and Brussels—attempting to form a united position and stand their ground. But based on our understanding of Europe, it remains politically fragmented and economically strained.
2. Trump’s Attempt to Woo Russia to Isolate China Is Nothing But Wishful Thinking
Huang Jing: Additionally, Donald Trump’s foreign policy has thus far primarily focused on China and Russia. Trump wants to win Russia’s support to counter China. As Marco Rubio previously stated, they aim to co-opt Russia to isolate China—much like Richard Nixon co-opted China to drive a wedge between China and the Soviet Union. I believe this is what they think and what they are doing.
3. Unlike Trump, Who Seeks to Weaken Europe, China Hopes for Europe’s Unity and Prosperity
Huang Jing: As early as 1958, Premier Zhou Enlai stated, “A united and prosperous Europe is beneficial to China and aligns with China's interests.” The logical reasoning is this: the more united and prosperous Europe becomes, the more independent—or desirous of independence—it will be. This explains why China abandoned the so-called “16+1” initiative several years ago. We have sought to cooperate with the European Union as a whole rather than with individual European powers.
However, the challenges are threefold. First, China hears divergent narratives from different European powers—Germany tells one story, Macron tells another. Second, on issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China genuinely wishes to collaborate with Europe, but Europeans adopt a firm stance with numerous demands and expectations. Yet without a clear decision-making mechanism, cooperation proves difficult. Finally, China must engage with a deeply fragmented Europe, which truly presents a challenge rather than an advantage.
With less than 100 days into Trump’s second term in office, the Transatlantic Alliance has already suffered successive collapses. Facing a Europe without the United States and against the backdrop of economic recession, how can Europe strike a balance among strategic autonomy, security and defense, and economic revitalization? As a pivotal force in safeguarding world peace, what role will China play in this new strategic landscape, and will China-EU cooperation usher in new opportunities? (Below is an excerpt from the written text.)
4. Trump Forces Europe to Face a Harsh Reality: Russia Is Not Going Away
Huang Jing: We will discuss some hot topics in Europe. For whatever reason, Europe is capturing global attention. From China’s perspective, Europe today holds significant value.
First, Europe finds itself in a difficult situation. President Donald Trump has upended Europe, and the entire global landscape has been turned upside down. Understandably, some are furious and emotional. America's betrayal of Europe, even its capitulation to Russia, fundamentally alters the dynamics. So, the first question is: Is this just another of Trump’s impulsive, erratic moves? Some might say he doesn’t know what he’s doing.
Or does it represent a strategic retreat by the United States? As we’ve observed over recent years, America’s capacity to manage global affairs as a hegemon is rapidly declining.
Alternatively, as some academic scholars (myself included) argue, does this reflect a comprehensive shift? The U.S. appears to be abandoning Wilsonianism and reverting to Jacksonianism—or what might be called neo-Jacksonianism.
Because for both America and Europe, the trans-Atlantic bridge is indispensable—whether in terms of security, economic, or political interests. Now, Trump seems poised to discard it all. In my view, this serves neither side well.
Europe is clearly suffering; as for the U.S., I don’t see how it gains much from this approach. I believe America’s hegemonic position has largely rested on the so-called trans-Atlantic bridge—or the trans-Atlantic alliance. Without this alliance, it’s unimaginable how the U.S. could have won the Cold War. But now, it all seems to be ending without any viable replacement.
5. Europe Faces Threefold Threats from the US; Transatlantic Relations Have Crossed the Point of No Return
Huang Jing: Let’s continue discussing a very direct and significant event. For the first time in history, under Trump’s leadership, the United States will absent the upcoming NATO military exercises. What does this mean?
Under the threats from Trump and his camp, will the U.S. withdraw from NATO and let Europe take over its own defense? Or, at the very least, does it seem that the U.S. wants to abandon its so-called leadership role in NATO and just be an ordinary member?
In other words, is this a threat from Trump to Europeans: “It’s time for you to increase defense investments.” He may not regard NATO as important, but we know that since 1945 or the implementation of the Marshall Plan, NATO has been crucial to the security of both sides of the Atlantic. That's why it’s called the “Atlantic Bridge.” Will the U.S. really withdraw from NATO?
Some scholars believe that NATO’s eastward expansion was a serious strategic miscalculation. For example, Charles Kupchan argued this in an article published in the April-May 2023 issue of Foreign Affairs. There is indeed a debate on this topic, isn’t there? Richard’s view is not isolated. Even in the U.S., some highly influential strategic thinkers, such as Mary Slaughter, Charles Kupchan, and the late Dr. Henry Kissinger, all believe that NATO over-expanded, leading to this war.
Here’s my point: If the U.S. truly reduces its commitment to NATO and makes itself untrustworthy, it will weaken NATO’s role as the pillar of European security and peace, to the extent that no one will take NATO seriously. As Ian just said, if Estonia or Lithuania is attacked, not only might the U.S. not act, but even other major NATO powers like Germany and France might say, “Hey, you have no cards left.” This might exactly be what Putin wants to see.
And for China on the Pacific side, it is not unhappy to see this happening, because the relationship between the U.S. and Europe is falling apart.
6. Europe is Becoming like a “New Soviet Union,” and the Current Situation is Unsustainable
Huang Jing: In this so-called “Ukrainian legend,” can Europe really hold out?
Germany’s train system is a disaster—last year it took me 12 hours to get from Berlin to Bonn. That’s just awful. I get what you mean—you genuinely want to normalize relations with Russia, but that doesn’t mean you can change yourselves, change Putin, or change Trump. In the end, you’ll just lose your own character.
We all seem to understand that Europe is facing threats from Russia or competition from China. Europe is strong, and it’s already at the table—precisely because it stands united. But what if Europe falls apart?
And considering the divisions, economic stagnation, and all these issues, to what extent can Europe achieve the genuine strategic autonomy that European leaders talk about? In the current situation, how can we truly achieve this so-called strategic autonomy—whether individually or collectively—in the right way? But even a wealthy country like Germany, I don’t think has the capability or resources to do what was just mentioned. Europe must stand together.
Interviewee | Huang Jing, Distinguished Professor at Shanghai International Studies University and Director of the Institute for American and Pacific Studies, Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies
Source | Guancha.cn, March 21, 2025.
Translated and reviewed by Yuan Shuai with AI translator
